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Homeland Security Threat Level: YELLOW (ELEVATED)

National Weather Forecast

Northeast:
Low temperatures are expected to reach the 30s in the Northeast this morning, and some of the higher terrain may reach the 20s. A few record lows may be set over parts of Upstate New York and New England. A Freeze Warning is in effect until 8:00 am EDT for portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and Frost Advisories are in effect until 9:00 am EDT from the Central Appalachians to northern Maine.
South:
A slow moving system continues to bring heavy rain and strong winds to portions of Florida. Periods of heavy rain will continue for at least a couple of days and the east-central coast could see five or more inches of rainfall. Additional rain may occur if the low develops and moves into the western Gulf of Mexico. This precipitation would help with drought conditions and reduce the fire danger.
A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the western Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia beginning 2:00 pm through 6:00 pm EDT today.
West:
A low pressure system is approaching the Pacific Northwest, and will result in rain showers and high terrain snow from the Pacific Northwest to the Northern Rockies. Portions of Wyoming and Colorado may reach above average temperatures in the 80s to near 90 in the lower elevations. The Desert Southwest will see widespread temperatures reaching the 100s. A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 10:00 pm AKDT for central-east and southeastern Alaska.
Midwest:
The Illinois River is still at major flood level and is forecast to rise for several more days and then recede. (National Weather Service, various media sources)

H1N1 Influenza Outbreak Update

H1N1 Flu Outbreak - USA

• The H1N1 Influenza Outbreak continues to grow in the United States. As of 11:00 am EDT on Monday, May 18, 2009, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reported 5,123 confirmed and probable cases in 47 states and the District of Columbia. The CDC reports five confirmed fatalities in the United States.

H1N1 Influenza Outbreak - International

• According to the World Health Organization (WHO), as of 2:00 am EDT on Monday, May 18, 2009, there were 8,829 confirmed cases in 40 countries, including the United States. Mexico has 3,103 confirmed cases and 68 fatalities.

Alaska Flooding Update

• Alaska Governor issued a State Disaster Declaration for Interior Flooding Events beginning May 4 and continuing
• FEMA AK Area Office continues to provide technical assistance to the State
• Region X has deployed support staff to assist the AAO
• State teams continue to evaluate IA and PA issues
• No Federal Assistance requested. (Region X, Bothell MOC)

Sunoco Oil Refinery Explosion - Delaware

• Sunoco Plant located in Claymont, Delaware
• The fire was extinguished Monday night
• Investigators will look into the cause of the explosion when it is safe to go into the area
• There were no injuries or deaths
• The area of explosion was located in the ethylene oxide section, which produces feed stock for plastic

Severe Weather/Tornadoes

Region IV:

• FEMA Region IV RRCC at Level IV (Watch / Steady State)

Kentucky:

• Governor declared a statewide State of Emergency due to Tornadoes and Flooding that occurred May 8.
• Fatalities: 2
• As of May 19, all power restoration is complete
• PA PDAs are complete; IA PDAs are scheduled to begin today
• No request for Federal assistance

Region VII:

• FEMA Region VII RRCC at Level III, 7:00 a.m. - 7:00 p.m. CDT (M-F)

Missouri

• Governor declared statewide State of Emergency
• Fatalities: 7
• As of May 19, an estimated 106 (-6,144) customers remain without power; restoration ongoing
• IA PDAs are complete; PA PDAs will begin this week
• 104 homes destroyed
• No request for Federal assistance

Kansas:

• Severe Storms, Flooding and Tornadoes occurred May 7 - 8, causing downed power lines and trees, and damage to residences/businesses.
• Fatalities: 2
• PA PDAs expected to start today for 25-30 counties
• No request for Federal assistance

Region IX:
Arizona (Mule Pass Fire): FEMA-2821-FM-AZ was approved on May 18, 2009 for the Mule Pass Fire in Bisbee (Cochise County), Arizona.

• The fire started May 19 and is believed to have been caused by lightning.
• 200 mandatory evacuations and 40 homes threatened
• More than 200 acres have burned with no containment
• Extreme dryness and forecast lightning in the next 24hrs continue to threaten the town (population 6,000)
• Fire behavior is erratic and being fueled by grassy conditions with extreme dryness
• Air operations suspended due to weather and darkness
• The fire is on Federal, state and private property.
• 14 engines and 6 crews assisting in firefighting
• Federal firefighters also assisting
• Additional Federal involvement is not anticipated

Fire Management Assistance Grant (FMAG)

FEMA-2821-FM-AZ approved on May 18, 2009 for the Mule Pass Fire in Bisbee, (Cochise County) Arizona. (FEMA HQ)

Tropical Weather Outlook

Atlantic/Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Mexico:
A weak surface low is currently located south of the Central Bahamas. Slow development of this system is possible during the next day or two as it moves generally northward at 10 to 15 mph. NOAA predicts less than a 30% chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.
Western Pacific:
No activity affecting US territories. (NOAA, HPC, National Hurricane Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center)


Earthquake Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Preliminary Damage Assessments

No new activity (FEMA HQ)

Wildfire Update

Mile 17 East End Road Fire-Alaska

• FEMA-2820-FM approved on May 14, 2009
• 1,074 acres burned, 100% containment

Wildfire Activity
National Preparedness Level: 1
National Fire Activity as of Monday, May 18, 2009:
Initial attack activity: Light (86 new fires)

New large fires: 0
Large fires contained: 1
Uncontained large fires: 9

Fire Weather: The western states will be very warm and dry. The central and southern High Plains will also see very warm and dry conditions. Red flag warnings continue in Alaska, Florida and Georgia.(National Interagency Fire Center, National Incident Information Center, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center, NGB)

Disaster Declaration Activity

No new activity (FEMA HQ)





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