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So when does DX Land come back ?

Switch Kit

Switch Kit

Well-Known Member
Apr 6, 2005
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Seriously ? It's been a good 6 years of a major decline , it's been a long time since I've experianced 9 S-Units of DX sun up and sundown . Is there an estimated date when it will be back full bore again ? I tend to somewhat understand the 11 year thing but not in full. I've enjoyed the decline being able to talk long distances locally but I know this won't last forever.I tend to wonder how a lot of the newbies over the last few years will handle this true day in and day out stuff once it gets here ? This is surely the times when SSB is an easier softer way for me rather then AM only. 9-S-Units of that shit on AM only, day in and day out ,can be like a drill bit into my skull. Thanks
 

We just passed the botom of the cycle.
Even beeing at the bottom i made some nice 10 meter qso's and DX but those conditions are now rare.

It will take an year or two before you can see an real change, from then to 2012 in the peak till 3 years after the peak you will have good DX, then you are at the downslope again.
 
Switch Kit,
Ready for this? Understanding the sun spot cycle isn't that difficult, just depends on how you look at it, sort of.
Think of it like almost any other 'cycle', day and night, for instance, except instead of 24 hours it's something like 11 years long. When you start that cycle can make a lot of difference. If you typically get up in the late morning, see the activity on the streets and think that activity is 'normal', then changing your wake-up time to early morning can be surprising because of the early morning activity. Then again, if you wake-up around midnight, you might wonder where everyone went. But then, those that normally get up about midnight may think the lack of activity is 'normal' and really be surprised when getting up during the day time. Some people are 'day' people, some 'night' people. And then there's them really odd people who seem never to sleep, they see both the 'day' activity and the 'night' activity. And there's also those poor unfortunate people who never seem to wake up at all, they just don't know what's going on...
- 'Doc

(All puns intended)
 
I got cha Doc , so , if understand JM in about a year or 2 should start to get full bore (so to speak ?) back in the days , there was what we called the breakfast club , there was many of us whom woke up with our coffees in the morning before many of us went to work on our radios on the AM side , this was usually before skip would come in full bore and unless many of us had power to run ? the skip would eat us up within a 5 or so mile radius ,(or less) usually until the sun would go down that day , the rest would be just shooting DX so to speak if that's what one chose to do.
 
Switch Kit,
Ready for this? Understanding the sun spot cycle isn't that difficult, just depends on how you look at it, sort of.
Think of it like almost any other 'cycle', day and night, for instance, except instead of 24 hours it's something like 11 years long. When you start that cycle can make a lot of difference. If you typically get up in the late morning, see the activity on the streets and think that activity is 'normal', then changing your wake-up time to early morning can be surprising because of the early morning activity. Then again, if you wake-up around midnight, you might wonder where everyone went. But then, those that normally get up about midnight may think the lack of activity is 'normal' and really be surprised when getting up during the day time. Some people are 'day' people, some 'night' people. And then there's them really odd people who seem never to sleep, they see both the 'day' activity and the 'night' activity. And there's also those poor unfortunate people who never seem to wake up at all, they just don't know what's going on...
- 'Doc
Click to expand...

Huh:confused: Doc you are sleeping too much:unsure:
 
not sure I know how to read the nice looking grid , but it does look like it could be 2012 like JM said .
 
The turning point is about now, as said here it is not even decided yet ;)
Don't ecpect too much from the turning point, nor the 11 year an cycle takes, we had short cycles of 10 years and longer up to 13 ....

Based on the assumed fact the cycle turns now, and an 11 year for an full cycle, we can expect the top of the cycle to be around 2012.

Look at it like a hill, you are now exactly at the foot of the hill, ready to start climbing it, so conditions will not change much from now for an year or 2, gradually building up.
Then things will pick up, till we're over the top for an few years, the upslope is mostly less steep as the downslope, so when we're over the top it'll take only an few years to see DX go back till the level we have now, and yoú're back at we are now on the other side of that hill.

Expectations of this cycle range from very good to moderate, but what it will be, it will be better as now.
Some DX i made on 10 all over Europe is sporadic E, and between that the band is dead.

With the new cycle you will be able to work some nice DX and in the time on top, your S meter will stay at S9+20 with foreighn stations if the cycle decides to be good.

To give an example, the last cycle i was testing the FT847 with my Imax 2000, ground radials for 19 mHz to 10, with 100 milliwats and had an nice DX contact in the USA with S9+20 dB.....100 milliwatts was all it took.

Just got the new 3-500ZG tune from RFparts fr the SB-1000 P.A. it will work fine on 10, but only needed for the bottom of the cycle, and the other ham bands.

When we are nearing the top of the cycle you need 4 to 12 watts for comfortable contacts, might look strange now, but i went through 3 cycles already, so i have some experience here.

Expect good DX from 2010 up to the downslope to 2014, be4 that and after that conditions will be less, but still some opportunities possible.

Cor
 
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that makes somewhat sence to me JM , appreciate the time it took you to explain . My only experiance with this is my ear holes and S-meters on my radios over the last 20 sum years , and what you just said , sounds about right to me , or at least how it sounds and reads to me cocnerning my radios over the years. In 1985 (when I started) Skip was full bore 9-S-Units day in and day out for what seemed like years , it's been so long I honestly don't remember but I took a good 4 years off from the hobby between late 98 and 2002 , coming back then and for the last 5 years or so , it's been more quiet then not on my end of things. Which I have personally enjoyed , I like long distance local talking when I can get away with it . So it has somewhat been a treat for me.
 

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