Reason Emergency Comms should not rely on the internet!

[C W Morse]

Some people both in and outside of amateur radio argue that emergency communications can be handled dependable and effectively via email, fax and cellphones. The below article from ARNewsLine explains why it is foolish to depend on fixed plant for communications needs in disasters or emergencies.

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From: www.arnewsline.org



EMERGING TECHNOLOGY: NEW SURVEY SAYS INTERNET HEADED TO GRIDLOCK

Hams who see emergency communications over the Internet as the future of traffic handling might want to rethink their position. This, if a new report that predicts that Internet usage could outstrip network capacity worldwide in a couple of years proves to be as accurate as it seems to be. Amateur Radio Newsline's Bruce Tennant, K6PZW, has the details:

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The study was conducted by the advisory firm Nemertes Research. The report is the first to assess the Internet infrastructure and current model as well as projected traffic patterns independent of one another. And it says that the Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years.

But that’s not all. The Nemertes report says that the cost required to make capacity meet demand is in the area of $42 billion to $55 billion in the United States. This would primarily be spent on broadband access capacity. The firm says that figure is 60 to 70 percent beyond the $72 billion service providers are planning to invest.

Even bigger is the required investment globally to keep data flowing freely

across the Internet. It's is estimated at $137 billion, again primarily in broadband access."

If the reports authors are correct, Internet users could increasingly encounter Internet brownouts or other interruptions to their applications they use online. For example, it may take more than one attempt to confirm an online purchase or it may take longer to download the latest video from a site like YouTube. And for hams trying to communicate using radio to Voice over Internet Protocol technology it could mean a major slowdown in message delivery speed. And when lives are at stake, such a roadblock would be intolerable.

For the amateur Radio Newsline, I'm Bruce Tennant, K6PZW, in Los Angeles.

73

Gadfly

 

[bigred222]

we talked about this a few meetings ago at my club. we had a guy come in from ARES and talk to us about the digital side of emergency comm. and what is to come for the future.
KILOBRAVO1

 

[AudioShockwav]

How many times have YOU logged onto your Fav web site only to get
THE PAGE CAN NOT BE DISPLAYED
I feel that the Internet can be another tool that is used in E-Coms, however I would not put all my eggs in one basket. Too many things can go wrong, just like anything else. Ham radio has just as much a role in E-coms now as it did before the internet.

73
Jeff

 

[W5LZ]

Amateur radio, CB radio, any service of radio can have a role in emergency communications. That certainly doesn't say that they will have, just that they can play a part. That won't change until some perfectly reliable method of communications is established (don't hold your breath).
emergency communications means that the usual/typical means of communications has stopped for some reason. The usual/typical means of solving that problem is by taking a step 'back' in how communication is usually done. That can vary between changing from a cell to a regular type phone, to shouting from one corner to the next. Just depends on how far 'back' you have to step to get reliable communications.
It also depends on how wide spread the problem is. If it's just in your house, then go next door. If it's in your whole town or state or region, then that 'step next door' thingy gets sort of farther away, but still the same principal.
Then, there's the part about just "how 'prepared' are you?", sort of thingy. As in do you know your neighbor, do you have an alternate source of power, do you have a pencil and paper to tie around a rock to throw, to whatever extreme you wanna go to.
The internet is a very nice option, IF it's available. In the most common type of communications emergency around here, loss of power, you can sort of forget the internet. You may have a portable generator, but does your local ISP? Or the local phone company? And so on.
One of the basic 'rules' of emergency communications is, don't depend absolutely on ANY particular type of sending information. Any/everything can screw up, so, have alternatives (and pray like hell!).
Don't rule out the internet, but don't count on it.
- 'Doc


(Except AOL... of course.)

 

[Peddler]

Well said...Look at NOLA ...no cell, no internet, no power, and damn few people to shout at.

 

[Captain Kilowatt]

When in a true emergency situation I know I have one and only one thing I can truely depend on and trust. Me. There is no way I could/would trust something or someone that is beyond my control and that includes repeaters. Yes, the internet can be very usefull but it is also very vulnerable to being taken down in storms etc.With my ham station and back up generator I know I can get a message to someone somewhere without depending on a middle man over which I have no control.Even if all my antennas come down in a storm I have a tuner and rolls of wire to get back on the air in a very short time.

 

[Moleculo]

Well said, QRN.

Military emergency comms will never rely solely on the internet. However, for most situations they are certainly more than dependable and adequate. However, because there is no such thing as 100% dependable, I don't see the RF only emergency communications methods going away anytime soon.

On a side note, that analysis about the internet not keeping up with capacity is nonsense. Does anyone remember when the predictions about Moore's Law coming to an end with processors? It never happened. I could come up with a hundred examples where naysayers have thrown out reasons why some technical solution we rely on will fail to keep up with demand, which never happens. Most of the so-called analysts that come up with these doom and gloom scenarios have little or no understanding of market economics.