SOLAR UPDATE
Astral aficionado Tad "Sunshiny Day" Cook, K7RA, Seattle, Washington,
reports: Might we see a high-bottom minimum at the end of this solar cycle?
January had a higher monthly average sunspot number than nine of the
previous twelve months. Looking at predicted smoothed sunspot numbers for
2007, they don't really go any lower this year than what is predicted for
this month and next.
The predicted smoothed sunspot numbers for August 2006 through December 2007
are 15.4, 15.2, 14.0, 12.4, 11.5, 11.2, 11.0, 10.9, 11.0, 11.1, 11.3, 12.0,
11.2, 13.3, 15.6, 18.3, and 21.3. As you can see, the lowest value is March
2007, at 10.9. Notice that it rises rapidly at the end of this year.
A strong solar wind caused geomagnetic numbers to jump high Monday, January
29, when the planetary A index rose to 36. We see quiet geomagnetic indices
for next week, with higher activity centered on February 13 and again on
February 25-26. This is based on activity during the current and previous
solar rotation.
Sunspot numbers for January 25 through 31 were 11, 11, 11, 13, 27, 33 and
32, with a mean of 19.7. The 10.7 cm flux was 79.9, 79.7, 80.5, 81.7, 86.7,
87.5, and 89.2, with a mean of 83.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 1,
2, 3, 5, 36, 21 and 16, with a mean of 12. Estimated mid-latitude A indices
were 1, 3, 3, 2, 19, 17 and 13, with a mean of 8.3.
For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical
Information Service Propagation page
Astral aficionado Tad "Sunshiny Day" Cook, K7RA, Seattle, Washington,
reports: Might we see a high-bottom minimum at the end of this solar cycle?
January had a higher monthly average sunspot number than nine of the
previous twelve months. Looking at predicted smoothed sunspot numbers for
2007, they don't really go any lower this year than what is predicted for
this month and next.
The predicted smoothed sunspot numbers for August 2006 through December 2007
are 15.4, 15.2, 14.0, 12.4, 11.5, 11.2, 11.0, 10.9, 11.0, 11.1, 11.3, 12.0,
11.2, 13.3, 15.6, 18.3, and 21.3. As you can see, the lowest value is March
2007, at 10.9. Notice that it rises rapidly at the end of this year.
A strong solar wind caused geomagnetic numbers to jump high Monday, January
29, when the planetary A index rose to 36. We see quiet geomagnetic indices
for next week, with higher activity centered on February 13 and again on
February 25-26. This is based on activity during the current and previous
solar rotation.
Sunspot numbers for January 25 through 31 were 11, 11, 11, 13, 27, 33 and
32, with a mean of 19.7. The 10.7 cm flux was 79.9, 79.7, 80.5, 81.7, 86.7,
87.5, and 89.2, with a mean of 83.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 1,
2, 3, 5, 36, 21 and 16, with a mean of 12. Estimated mid-latitude A indices
were 1, 3, 3, 2, 19, 17 and 13, with a mean of 8.3.
For more information concerning radio propagation, visit the ARRL Technical
Information Service Propagation page