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Sun's next 11-year cycle could be 50 pct stronger


If that is true then it does not mean good things for radio communications,in fact the opposite may happen.That report is speaking about solar flares and CME's or coronal mass ejections and when that happens we get a radio blackout and sattellites become vulnerable as well as the power grids can take a bad hit.If the sunspot numbers were to be 50% greater in numbers that would be good but it looks like the report is talking about solar flares associated with sunspots.
 
I remember back many years ago when I was called into work early one morning by the morning news guy.He had lost all his satellite delivered news feeds.I checked things out and found nothing wrong except for a loss of signal.I called the news provider,Broadcast News, and kept getting a recorded message.A few calls around to other media services reveiled that they too had lost all feeds.as it happened the main telecom satellite for Canada had been wiped by a solar storm.Satellite and cable TV was for the large part out and telephone systems were switched to terrestrial backups.All services were switched over to another satellite which required a repointing of the 12 foot dish.Not easy as this thing was on a fixed mount.Eventually the satellite was brought under control and some services were restored on it but it remained a cripple.Several years ago another satellite was "lost". The downlinks went dark and ground controllers literally lost the satellite for several hours. It was eventually found out of its assigned orbit.It's onboard gyros were screwed up and it drifted out of its station slot.Another solar storm had blown some electronics onboard and the gyros were not working.Ground controllers worked out a very complicated way of using the onboard thrusters to automatically correct for any drift based on mathmematics rather than feedback from the gyros.It worked but the expected life is reduced by a few years due to the increase in fuel consumption.Several big and unexplained power failures have been attributed to solar storms as well.In the last few years we have learned how to better cope with such things but it still makes you think how vulnerable we are to what we cannot prevent.
 
I don't know... usually you will get a solar flare from an area with lots of sunspots-- so if they are predicting lots of big solor flares-- it could mean lots of sun spots right before the flare
Some people also say that solar flares help with aurora skip, I don't know if its true --haven't kept track--but might get some good aurora skip for Canada and maybey northern US
But anyways-- lots of flares could mean lots of sunspots before the flare-- so we could have a week of good conditions followed by a week or so of blank out
Just trying to look at the good side-- we could get periods of good spots followed by deadly silence ( or that strange sound after a flare)

Does anyone really know for sure if flares help aurora skip? Or has anyone ever noticed an increase in aurora skip prop/activity after one?
There have been a few times that I think it might have made a difference up here-- not positive though-- but it sure seemed like it-- great skip whatever it was-- all from up north near the artic circle/northern Canada
 
I am a little scetchy on this..

however a solor flare releases a vast amount of energy..
this energy travels at the speed of light (means it takes a little over 8 minutes to get from the sun to us...that is a flar that is released looking in our direction)..

upon reaching us it hits our upper atmosphere (you all have heard of the lights of bayolliella (however tha is spelt..lol)..

this is a result of the magnetic energy that was released as a result of the solar flar..
this then enteracts with our upper atmosphere and in so doing
reacts to our poles magnetic field..
this reaction is the result of our poles/atmosphere trying to skip off the incoming electrical-magnetic fields..

these reactions can very easily over load satilites and even terrestrial electrical stations..
here on tera ferma (lol) those places closer to the poles (north and south pole) are more at rick of being over loaded..
this decreases the further a electrical station and or communications station is from both the north and south poles

this is not something new..
it has been going on so long as the sun and our earth have been around..

but it is only now that we understand (in part) of how this happens and why..
that we understand not just the increased radiation attributed to solar flares....but also the magnetic and electrical fields also attributed to these happenings..

ok now all those who understand this better..
feel free to rip this apart....LOL
besides my specalty is both chemistry and biology (earth bound sciences...lol)

Later
 
It takes more than 8 minutes for the effects of a solar storm to hit Earth. The particles do not travel at the speed of light but rather travel with what is called the solar wind and can take as long as 24 hours to hit earth or as little as a few hours.Big solar storms definately do affect auroura and therefore affect VHF and above freqs.Six meters starts to hop after a good solar storm while HF may go dead.As for the prediction of lots of big storms being associated with lots of sunspots,not necessarily.Some of the biggest solar flares ever recorded were close to the solar minium and were from single spots that were very active.
 

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