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IS THIS CYCLE ENDINGM

Stellasstillarat

Stellasstillarat

Active Member
Aug 14, 2014
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I've been enjoying skip going on four months now. Through out the US and Europ. For about three weeks US skip has been sporadic at best and the last two weeks nothing from Europe.


Now the last few days the US skip has "skipped" right out of my recive.

I don't know when this cycle started but I've a feeling I know when it's ending.

So is it just some atmospheric anomaly that's interfering with conditions or is it truly at an end?

I've been hearing the words solar flare being thrown around a lot.

Not sure if that's a fact or just something people say when skip conditions are coming to an end.

This really sux! I definitely took those great conditions for granted. If I have to talk locally only I'm gonna pack up my station until I get my ticket.

Once again. This sux!
 

You should subscribe to the notices from www.spaceweather.com. They give you all the updates on what's happening on the sun and meteor showers etc. Yes there has been a huge X-class flare that has caused a radio blackout the last day or two. I got this in my email earlier today.

Space Weather News for May 6, 2015
http://spaceweather.com

X-FLARE: Emerging sunspot AR2339 unleashed an intense X2-class solar flare on May 5th at approximately 22:11 UT. Radiation from the flare caused strong radio blackouts on the Pacific side of Earth, interfering with communications at frequencies below ~20 MHz. The blast also hurled a CME into space, but not toward Earth. This event could herald a sustained period of high solar activity, as AR2339 appears to be large and explosive. Check http://spaceweather.com for more information and updates.

SOLAR FLARE ALERTS: Did you miss the flare? Subscribers to our space weather alert service received text messages and phone calls while the flare was still in progress. Sign up for your own solar flare alerts at http://spaceweathertext.com (text) or http://spaceweatherphone.com (voice).

You are subscribed to the Space Weather mailing list, a free service of Spaceweather.com: http://spaceweather.com/services/ .

The solar cycle is winding down however it takes years to go from a peak to a trough.....about seven years to be exact and it takes about four years to go from a trough to a peak again. On average that is. Conditions are always better in the winter too so you are seeing a seasonal decline along with a cyclic decline and being hammered by a solar flare.
 
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Great information. I didn't know conditions slowed in the summer time. + the decline in the cycle itself. + the solar fares.

I guess this equals bad news for someone like mysel.

The local rag chew around here consists of "how do I sound? " "how bout now" "and now?" Wow! I hope the next day conditions are solid I'm not doing anything important.
I'm going to spend every waking moment making contacts and enjoying some real qso's. How am I sounding now? What a wast of air time.

I signed up for the texting option of that site. I gave it a shot for the small monthly sum. I just might learn something.

Maybe I'll get a heads up on the next mass extinction meteor strike.
I hear nuclear type winter's can get awfly cold.
 
11m, like the rest of the HF bands is, contrary to belief, a winter band. It usually peaks around the end of October. By late spring its dead for DX other than a bit of Sporadic-E action.

You need to look at SFI (Solar Flux Index) numbers to get an idea of whether its good for DX.

http://www.wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/index.shtml

A SFI of 140 is pretty much the minimum for 11m for DX, ideally it wants to be up at least towards 200. The other two numbers you need to take notice of are the A index and K index - they tell us how much the sun is affecting radio. You want both to be low, especially K. A K index of over 2 is going to mean DX is affected, a K index of 4 has an effect so bad you wonder if you've still got an antenna plugged in. It is possible to have good SFI numbers but not be able to hear anything other than local because of a high K number. The A index is an indication of the average of the K index over time. After a solar event you'll find the A number is quite high for a while until things settle down and the K index is low for a prolonged time. Usually the A index only gets up into middle teens at the most but the other month it was well over 100 after a very long and very severe period of solar activity. Radio was quite crap for weeks after.
 
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M0GVZ is right - winter we get more DX and lots of east/west, in summer much less overall and mostly south/north
 
Rick330man said:
Here in South Florida, it is typically in the summer when we get the short hop skip that allows us to pick up other parts of the state.
Click to expand...

That is generally sporadic E type propagation and ducting and has nothing to do with the solar cycle. It has to do with temperature inversions mainly along coastal areas. Sporadic E propagation can occur during any part of a solar cycle and peaks May thru early September and again for a wmaller opening in December.
 

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