Here's a graph of Novice license numbers over a similar period to your graph.
There was no real change in rate of the loss of Novice licenses over this period. The Novice license was apparently losing numbers for years prior based on data from here.
This is a graph of Technician license numbers.
It looks to me like a lot of people with Technician upgraded after 2000, with something of an "echo" of this happening again when the FCC dropped all Morse code testing.
Here's the numbers for Extra.
The numbers of Extra licenses is further evidence of upgrades from the reduction of Morse code speed tests, a rate that increased after the elimination of Morse code testing.
A look at the losses from Advanced numbers shows a great many of this first gain in Extra came from there.
Just so everything is on the same scale I'll post the total numbers as shown by AH0A.
What I'm seeing as the largest influence in this relatively sudden loss of numbers is the announcement of ITU dropping Morse code testing from the international treaty on Amateur radio licensing in 2003, and the loss being reversed by the FCC acting on this in 2007 by removing Morse code testing for US Amateurs.
I'm thinking that any claims of economic recession, sunspot numbers, or anything else having any real influence over this period is wishful thinking. That's not saying they had no influence, they might have but not near the level of Morse code testing.
Seeing a loss in total of licenses of over 30,000 between 2003 and 2007, only to gain them back in three years, seems to indicate to me that Morse code testing drove this dip. The 10 year dip in Technician numbers from the 2000 restructuring until some kind of "steady state" was reached in 2010 also shows the effect Morse code testing had.
There was no real change in rate of the loss of Novice licenses over this period. The Novice license was apparently losing numbers for years prior based on data from here.
This is a graph of Technician license numbers.
It looks to me like a lot of people with Technician upgraded after 2000, with something of an "echo" of this happening again when the FCC dropped all Morse code testing.
Here's the numbers for Extra.
The numbers of Extra licenses is further evidence of upgrades from the reduction of Morse code speed tests, a rate that increased after the elimination of Morse code testing.
A look at the losses from Advanced numbers shows a great many of this first gain in Extra came from there.
Just so everything is on the same scale I'll post the total numbers as shown by AH0A.
What I'm seeing as the largest influence in this relatively sudden loss of numbers is the announcement of ITU dropping Morse code testing from the international treaty on Amateur radio licensing in 2003, and the loss being reversed by the FCC acting on this in 2007 by removing Morse code testing for US Amateurs.
I'm thinking that any claims of economic recession, sunspot numbers, or anything else having any real influence over this period is wishful thinking. That's not saying they had no influence, they might have but not near the level of Morse code testing.
Seeing a loss in total of licenses of over 30,000 between 2003 and 2007, only to gain them back in three years, seems to indicate to me that Morse code testing drove this dip. The 10 year dip in Technician numbers from the 2000 restructuring until some kind of "steady state" was reached in 2010 also shows the effect Morse code testing had.
