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Solar cycle as begun

Discussion in 'Interesting DX Contacts' started by DXman, Sep 17, 2020.

  1. DXman

    DXman Yes Sir, that's 3100 degrees F. 9 yrs of hard work

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    Solar Cycle 25 Has Begun
    2-3 minutes
    Sept. 15, 2020: Solar Cycle 25 is officially underway. NASA and NOAA made the announcement during a media teleconference yesterday, Sept. 15th. According to an international panel of experts, the sunspot number hit rock bottom in Dec. 2019, bringing an end to old Solar Cycle 24. Since then, sunspot counts have been slowly increasing, heralding new Solar Cycle 25.

    “How quickly solar activity rises is an indicator on how strong the next solar cycle will be,” says Doug Biesecker of NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, co-chair of the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel. “Although we’ve seen a steady increase in sunspot activity this year, it is slow.”

    The panel believes that new Solar Cycle 25 will be a weak one, peaking in 2025 at levels similar to old Solar Cycle 24. If their prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 25 (like Solar Cycle 24 before it) will be one of the weakest since record-keeping began in 1755.



    “While we are not predicting a particularly active Solar Cycle 25, violent eruptions from the sun can occur at any time,” warns Biesecker. Indeed, even Solar Minimum can produce a superstorm, so Solar Cycle 25 should not be taken lightly despite the panel’s low expectations. Radio blackouts, power outages and severe geomagnetic storms are possible in the years ahead.

    [​IMG]
    Above: Solar Cycle 25 auroras photographed on Sept. 14, 2020, by Jani Ylinampa in Finland.
    For now, solar activity should remain generally low. Sunspot counts still have a long way to go before they reach levels typical of Solar Maximum. For the rest of 2020, periods of quiet will be occasionally interrupted by minor solar storms, with only a slight chance of big events.

    On the bright side, the first Northern Lights of Solar Cycle 25 are dancing around the Arctic Circle right now, and the coming season for aurora watching promises to be the best in years. Stay tuned!
    Spaceweather.com
     

  2. Tokin

    Tokin 42Zero Tampa

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    We just finished 3 straight weeks of no sun spot activity. Its going to be a slow return this time.
     
    Eldorado828 and tecnicoloco like this.
  3. L2

    L2 Well-Known Member

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    Great news!
     
  4. groundwire

    groundwire Well-Known Member

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    Its been so dead you wouldn't think so. Just had two sunspots, both missed earth :notworthy:
     
  5. Justme

    Justme Well-Known Member

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    If you want an accurate prediction about cycle 25 ask me in 11 years ;)
     
    groundwire, L2, Eldorado828 and 4 others like this.
  6. Captain Kilowatt

    Captain Kilowatt Professional Amateur
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    Sunspots missed Earth?? :confused: You are confusing sunspots with solar flares. Sunspots are cooler regions on the surface of the Sun. They stay there. Solar flares or the bigger coronal mass ejections (CME) are massives releases of energy that travel through space. We want those to miss Earth trust me.
     
    Tokin likes this.
  7. Tokin

    Tokin 42Zero Tampa

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    If you read past the full story you see whats actually happening.
    "Christopher Flores took the picture while watching the sunset from Phoenix, Arizona, on Sept. 13th. "Smoke from wildfires in California dimmed the sun so much that I could photograph it. Is that a solar flare?"

    If only... The sun hasn't produced a significant solar flare in more than a month. In fact, the solar disk has been completely blank--without sunspots--for the past 27 days. Solar Minimum conditions are very much in effect."
    Blank for the last 27 days and counting. Screenshot_2020-09-17-16-43-30.png
     
  8. binrat

    binrat WDX Club Coordinator
    Staff Member

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    Give it time, it will come. I hope.
    Yesterday it took me 45 minutes to make 3 contacts on 20 metres. Normally I have 8-15 and packed up heading off of the mountain in that time.
     
    Shadetree Mechanic and Tokin like this.
  9. Eldorado828

    Eldorado828 8-2-8 Amarillo Tx Standing By

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    Hopefully Hopefully! I had strong conditions for literally about 8 minutes Tuesday evening. It's as if someone had turned up the volume across the 11 meter band and just as I was getting excited it went ...........

    Disappointment, kind of like Ralphie meeting Santa on a Christmas story...

    First excitement in over 45 days......
     
    Shadetree Mechanic, Tokin and binrat like this.
  10. Jay Mojave

    Jay Mojave Well-Known Member

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    Cleaned off the dust on my CB Radio, checked the antenna VSWR its great, input power voltage dead nutz on, looked over the coax all good. Tuning around the band heard two truck drivers far away, and I called for a radio check and a big friendly hello. Got a quick reply and friendly hello back. All the other channels are dead. Possibility hearing static noise from the planet Venues.

    Jay in the Great Mojave Desert.... "Next Gas 150 Miles"
     
  11. TheBlaster

    TheBlaster Active Member

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    There is definitely a positive correlation to sunspots appearing and non Sporadic E contact being made on 10/12m (France to Australia being one of note) on the DXmaps and clusters, it seems we really are gently moving into this cycle. Most likely for stations with plenty of power and beams at the moment, bit it certainly seems to be coming back around. It is a nice feeling.

    https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity
     
    Eldorado828, L2, Tokin and 1 other person like this.
  12. Eldorado828

    Eldorado828 8-2-8 Amarillo Tx Standing By

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    I'm ready for it to come on so some of us lower power levels fellas can play too!
     
    cralt, Tokin and codeman like this.
  13. TheBlaster

    TheBlaster Active Member

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    It will be quite a while yet. To work the weak skip you need super low noise floor, high performance antenna/QTH, some power, high degree of persistence and luck... a lot of factors to make the 10-12m band work at the moment, especially 11m as people tend to follow each other, when they hear nothing on T5 they won't call, and so the loop of non calling and quick giving up on RX listening begins. There could be an opening but few will know because there are few callers and few listeners.

    Patience is a virtue, and many do not need patience as there is DX to be had elsewhere.

    It needs patience most don't have at the moment, and fair enough.

    All in good time.
     
    Tokin likes this.

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