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Another Solar Cycle 25 prediction

Discussion in 'General Ham Radio Discussion' started by BJ radionut, Jul 8, 2020.

  1. BJ radionut

    BJ radionut Supporting Member and 6m addict

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    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.15263.pdf

    Interesting theory and quite a difference in previous studies.
    Who's right only time will tell.

    Clip from one conclusion:
    "Our method predicts that SC25 will probably be among the strongest solar cycles ever observed and that it will almost certainly be stronger than present SC24 (116 spots) and most likely stronger than the previous." (I.E. SC23 @ 150 spots)
    "
    "Very early indications of the spot pattern are appearing at higher than average latitudes (∼40◦)30. Historically, high latitude spot emergence has been associated with the development of large amplitude sunspot cycles —only time will tell."




    If this is anywhere close to true. All bands above 40 meters (20/17/15/10 meters plus even 6 meters) will at one point reach levels where they will be open 24/7...Local chatting will go away as the band openings will cloud cover almost anything in the 0-200 mile range...
    I remember the 80's cycle (SC21/250+ spots) when on 10 meters without 500 watts was almost impossible to talk inside of 50 miles away due to the signal strength of the stations coming in, even at night.
    It was common for mobile stations in the 25-watt range to be S9+ coming from the 1000++ mile path, it was crazy!
    Without a good beam antenna and having serious F/B rejection, working stations in one specific direction was almost not possible. (I.E. Central US to Aisa/ S Pacific) Euro's were too strong even via long path!
    Vertical antennas were almost useless as so many signals coming thru from so many paths made it difficult to hear a given area or specific DX station.
    We will see!(y):LOL:
    All the Best
    Gary
     
    wavrider, Rwb, avistar23 and 4 others like this.

  2. binrat

    binrat WDX Club Coordinator
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    Waiting patiently as I am tired of carrying the extra 2 kg of amplifier / battery to get contacts. Sure wish 12 watts would do it.:(:(
     
  3. BJ radionut

    BJ radionut Supporting Member and 6m addict

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    More Clips: " our best estimate for the SSN amplitude of solar cycle 25 is 233 spots, with a 68% confidence that the amplitude will fall between 204 and 254 spots. We predict with 95% confidence that the cycle 25 amplitude will fall between 153 and 305 spots.

    ". SC25 maximum will occur no earlier than the year 2023 and no later than 2026 with a minimum peak sunspot number of 95 and a maximum of 130. Following the convention of the prediction panels, throughout, we quote the smoothed sunspot number for maxima - determined from a running thirteen-month smoothing of the average number of sunspots for each calendar month. Finally, the panel expects the end of SC24 and the start of SC25 to occur no earlier than July 2019, and no later than September 2020."
     
    Rwb, Shadetree Mechanic and binrat like this.
  4. Road Squawker

    Road Squawker Sr. Member

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    yeah, you can work statoins 1000's of miles away, but, you can't work your neighbor down the street.
     
    Rwb likes this.

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