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Up date - Solar Cycle.

Discussion in 'Interesting DX Contacts' started by DXman, Nov 20, 2018.

  1. DXman

    DXman Well-Known Member

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    spaceweatherarchive.com
    A Sunspot from the Next Solar Cycle
    2 minutes
    Nov. 19, 2018: Over the weekend, a small sunspot materialized in the sun’s northern hemisphere, then, hours later, vanished again. Such an occurrence is hardly unusual during solar minimum when sunspots are naturally small and short-lived. However, this ephemeral spot was noteworthy because its magnetic field was reversed–marking it as a member of the next solar cycle.

    [​IMG]

    Shown above is a magnetic map of the sun from NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory on Nov. 17th. Two sunspot groups visible at 21:00 UT are inset.

    Note sunspot AR2727 just north of the sun’s equator. It is a member of decaying Solar Cycle 24, the cycle that peaked back in 2012-2014. Next, compare its magnetic polarity to that of the other, unnumbered sunspot high above it. They are opposite. According to Hale’s Law, this means the two sunspots belong to different solar cycles. The high latitude sunspot appears to be a harbinger of Solar Cycle 25.

    Solar cycles always mix together at their boundaries. Indeed, ephemeral sunspots possibly belonging to Solar Cycle 25 have already been reported on Dec. 20, 2016, and April 8, 2018. Now we can add Nov. 17, 2018, to list. The slow transition between Solar Cycle 24 and Solar Cycle 25 appears to be underway.

    What does this mean? First, it suggests that the solar cycle is still operative. This contradicts widespread internet buzz that a Grand Minimum is in the offing, with no new sunspots expected for decades as the solar cycle grinds to a halt. Second, if patterns of previous solar cycles hold, Solar Minimum is not finished. It will probably continue to deepen in the year or so ahead even as new Solar Cycle 25 sunspots occasionally pop up, promising an ultimate end to the lassitude.


     
    Shadetree Mechanic likes this.

  2. TheRealPorkchop

    TheRealPorkchop Certified Sith Pimp

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    9CE2C91F-4D59-44E5-8969-EAEF077B98AC.jpeg
     
    S&W357 and KD2GOE like this.
  3. Klondike Mike

    Klondike Mike Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]



    [​IMG]
     
  4. fogdog

    fogdog Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for the report. I enjoy reading about it.
     
  5. BJ radionut

    BJ radionut Supporting Member and 6m addict

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    [​IMG]
    November 17, 2018 @ 14:55 UTC
    Signs of Cycle 25
    Although this region that popped up today may not appear to be something to write home about, it is located high enough in latitude and also appears to have the correct magnetic configuration to associate it with the upcoming Solar Cycle 25. This marks the second such region in the northern hemisphere in as many weeks. A very small spot that formed on November 9th also had the correct Cycle 25 configuration. We will likely see more regions just like this while isolated sunspots associated with Cycle 24 continue to appear near the solar equator. Eventually over the next year or two, Cycle 25 regions will outnumber those of the previous solar cycle and we will once again see a gradual increase in sunspots and solar flare activity.
    All the Best
    Gary
     

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