WHEN DID THE CURRENT CYCLE BEGIN AND WHEN WILL IT END?

[Stellasstillarat]

I've been on the air since late October 2014.
I operated as I did when I dropped out in 87, AM only.
I divorced my madison while digging through the equipment I packed away in 87 and have been enjoying ssb skip since.
All the best skip did die out in the spring and I hear many saying it should be coming in any day now.
As if some higher power's gonna throw some big switch.
I did ask on air and research but can seem to get a straight answer.
when did this current cycle begin and when will it finally go bye bye for another 11 years?

 

[Captain Kilowatt]

There is no straight answer except that it won't disappear for 11 years. It is an 11 year cycle. A cycle is from low to high and back to low again and that 11 years is not carved in stone. It varies slightly. There cannot be a straight answer because they have not perfected the crystal ball yet. It's like trying to predict the weather three years in advance and be right on the money.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

 

[Stellasstillarat]

Thanks. I will check out those links after i ask this question.
As I mentioned in my op, I've benn on the air since October 2014.
Assuming this cycle will last 11 years or there abouts, when did this current one begin? With my luck it began 10 years ago. Thanks again.

There is no straight answer except that it won't disappear for 11 years. It is an 11 year cycle. A cycle is from low to high and back to low again and that 11 years is not carved in stone. It varies slightly. There cannot be a straight answer because they have not perfected the crystal ball yet. It's like trying to predict the weather three years in advance and be right on the money.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_24

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/predict.shtml

 

[Captain Kilowatt]

If the current cycle started 10 years ago it would be just about ready to start again. Remember a cycle is from one point to the corresponding point of the next one. If it starts at a low then it goes thru a high and back to a low again in 11 years. It does NOT take 11 years to go from a high to a low or vice versa. By all accounts the official start was January 4, 2008. This is when the first reverse polarity sunspot was observed on the solar surface which is what defines the beginning of a cycle. On average it takes about 4 years to go from a low to a high and about 7 years to go from a high back to a low. Note I said on average. Most peaks are actually double peaks and this cycle had a peak around January 2012 followed by a slight dip and then another peak around the summer of 2014. We are now on the downhill slide from there.

 

[vkrules]

Cycle 24 "It is the current solar cycle, and began on January 4, 2008, but there was minimal activity until early 2010.[3][4] It is on track to be the Solar Cycle with the lowest recorded sunspot activity since accurate records began in 1750." Cycle peaked in 2013 and is headed down big time ! Cycle 25 is expected to be lower still.

 

[Stellasstillarat]

I'll be happy with a few years, even on the low. Low is better then nul. I've noticed my dx fix is about two to five contests in my total of an hour or two seven day a week. I be hung to feel like an addict without making going through withdrawal after a frw days.

If the current cycle started 10 years ago it would be just about ready to start again. Remember a cycle is from one point to the corresponding point of the next one. If it starts at a low then it goes thru a high and back to a low again in 11 years. It does NOT take 11 years to go from a high to a low or vice versa. By all accounts the official start was January 4, 2008. This is when the first reverse polarity sunspot was observed on the solar surface which is what defines the beginning of a cycle. On average it takes about 4 years to go from a low to a high and about 7 years to go from a high back to a low. Note I said on average. Most peaks are actually double peaks and this cycle had a peak around January 2012 followed by a slight dip and then another peak around the summer of 2014. We are now on the downhill slide from there.

 

[vkrules]

Some predict we are headed for a Maunder Minimum, "prolonged sunspot minimum." Last one lased 75 years . On that note we will have openings for the next few years just not as frequent or strong.

 

[vkrules]

You haven't been on air during a minimum have you.? solar minimum = long periods of null.

 

[Mudfoot]

You haven't been on air during a minimum have you.? solar minimum = long periods of null.

I welcome the null, at times.

 

[Stellasstillarat]

That's ok with me.
If i hear'em, I can usually work'em.
I'm dead serious.
I begin to go though withdrawal.
It's most likley because I'm new to being able to not only make contacts to places as far as Turkey and Japan.
I kinda get the
same feeling I used to get with the walkie talkie antenna sticking out my bedroom window at 2am, when I should've been sleeping.
Those contacts were a few block's away but to me it was like I was talking to a space ship orbiting the earth.
I really enjoy making contacts and radio friends all over the world. It may ware off but right now it's so cool.

Some predict we are headed for a Maunder Minimum, "prolonged sunspot minimum." Last one lased 75 years . On that note we will have openings for the next few years just not as frequent or strong.

 

[camaro1]

 

[Captain Kilowatt]

I'll be happy with a few years, even on the low.

No you won't. This is my fourth cycle since I have been active in radio. Unless you get a ham ticket and can move down to 20m or even 40 and 80m you will have pretty much ZERO DX for a year or two except for the odd weak little short skip opening that might, I said MIGHT, occur once a week or so. 10/11m will be DEAD.

 

[wavrider]

I second what Captain Kilowatt posted, if you are a DX junky then you need the ham license to get you fix.

11 meters is dead, 10 meters is dead, 17 meters worked Oman, Morocco and Galapagos islands.

Got to get lower in frequency as the solar cycles winds down

 

[vkrules]

My fourth cycle as well.CK and I am shocked at how bad conditions are compared to this time last year 10,11 12 are going to be real dead this time next year. After xmas I might look at putting the eme array up again.

 

[Captain Kilowatt]

EME array?? Please tell me what you had up. EME has always interested me however I have nothing to work EME however I am starting to look at a pair of 13B2's in a suspicious way. LOL I have them to put up for terrestrial weak signal however with the new digital modes even a pair of them are capable of working a fair number of EME'ers.